Kempton Preview: Class 2 Handicap Analysis (1m 7f 218y)
It wasn’t to be yesterday, with Ernst Blofeld going down by just a neck to the improving Wardlaw who got the run up the near-side rail, which is often advantageous. However we quickly move on to an ultra-competitive 14-runner Class 2 Handicap at Kempton, hoping for better luck.
Here is how the main contenders shape up.
The Standard Setter
Roaring Legend: Officially rated 104, he sets the class benchmark for the race. While his high rating leaves little wiggle room if there is an unexposed improver in the line-up, he remains the one they all have to beat on official figures. He boasts an incredibly consistent record on a synthetic surface, having only finished out of the placings twice from ten starts on the all-weather (with both of those coming at Newcastle). At a current price of 14/1, he offers massive each-way appeal, further aided by jockey Hugh Horgan’s valuable 5lb claim.
The Main Threat
Real Dream: On pure form, he looks the primary danger to the Roaring Legend. He is highly capable on his day and now sits 12lb lower than his peak official mark of 104. The main concern is his infrequent winning habit, though he has frequently been set tough assignments. He has a close history with Roaring Legend, most recently finishing in front of him at Newbury, and has excuses for when he finished behind him at Newmarket as he was stuck behind runners and never got going.
The Market Question Mark
Codiak: Unlike some of his exposed rivals, this horse remains on an upward curve. While this represents a significant step up in class, he tries this longer trip for the first time and may still possess some crucial wiggle room in his official rating. He definitely has a serious chance of reaching the placings but is perhaps too short in the market as an outright win selection.
Hot Fuss: A very interesting runner who won last time out after a break, setting a new personal best. That followed an intriguing jumping campaign, which may have helped him strengthen up further. If he ran to that level again he wouldn’t be far away but he would need to improve another two or three pounds.
The Three-year-old Weight Receivers
Guildmaster: Caught the eye when finishing fourth in an Ascot Listed race last time out. He tackles this longer distance for the first time, but his previous performance strongly suggests he will stay. He looks to hold a leading chance utilizing his weight-for-age allowance and is expected to confirm form with his re-opposing rival (Level Look).
Level Look: Finished just behind Guildmaster at Ascot. He provides one of the main pace angles in the race but may struggle to dictate terms here in the manner he did when winning a pair of uncompetitive, four-runner events.
The Outsiders
Duraji: I do wonder if he want’s this trip and it would perhaps be worth dropping him back to twelve furlongs. That said, he ran one of his better races in the Chester Cup over an extended 2m 2f. He seems to be in limbo currently and hasn’t won since landing a maiden at Leopardstown as a three-year-old.
Synergism: Another potential front-runner, but he is now 43lb higher than his maiden victory last April. Racing in the low 90s, he appears to have fully reached his ceiling.
Boatswain: A highly consistent and predictable type who usually runs to his mark. However, he lacks a class edge here and typically requires a clear ability advantage. This looks too competitive.
Sax Appeal: Possesses the back-class to figure on his very best form, but he is highly inconsistent and is unlikely to get an easy lead.
Indemnity & Arc Zoosve: Both find themselves running from out of the handicap and would need to produce significant, career-best performances to feature.
Race Analysis: There looks to be a good deal of pace on with Sax Appeal, Synergism, and Level Look all likely to go forward. From low draws, both Codiak and Real Dream should be able to get a nice early position. The same is questionable for Roaring Legend who is drawn 12 in this 14-runner field. That said, with a maximum field and guaranteed pace, the race may still work out in his favour. I expect him to be challenging wide as they turn in and the question will be whether anything gets first run on him – most likely Real Dream.
Market Analysis: I think there are plenty of holes in this market (Level Look and Boatswain look shorter than they should be in the win market) which allows for value to be taken. I had expected Roaring Legend to be single figures so he has to be the selected bet here (despite the drift). With four places on offer for each-way terms, that looks the best way to go considering his draw. There has been some market support for Real Dream, who was as big as 10/1 last night, so the current 7/1 looks on the short side considering his win record. i am also happy to let Codiak go unbacked at 12/1 considering his lack of race fitness and stable form. The one that has less question marks would be Guildmaster. The 5/1 available may still have some juice in the price as a win bet only.
Selection: Roaring Legend @ 16/1 (Generally Available) 1pt Each-Way (1/5 1-2-3-4) & Guildmaster @ 5/1 (Generally Available) 1pt WIN
