Newcastle Preview: Class 3 Handicap Analysis (1m 4f 98y)
In terms of sheer quality, the standout feature on the card is the highly competitive Class 3 (0-95) Handicap over 1m 4f 98 yards. With a mix of ultra-consistent veterans, unexposed three-year-olds, and proven all-weather specialists, it is a fascinating puzzle to solve on Newcastle’s demanding Tapeta circuit.
Here is how the main contenders shape up.
The Standard Setter
Ernst Blofield: Sitting at the top of the weights, he sets a remarkably consistent standard for the rest to aim at. Arguably his career-best performance to date came right here on the all-weather back in May, where he landing a similar event off a 7lb lower mark. Having already proven his stamina over further, this grueling uphill finish looks absolutely ideal for him.
The Main Threat
Circus Of Rome: While Enst Blofield sets the standard, there are a few unexposed types capable of improving past him—chief among them is Circus Of Rome. He likely bumped into a graded horse in handicap clothing last time out at Pontefract, where he ran a massive race while giving away a whopping 17lb to the eventual winner. He loves this track, having won over course and distance in the Racing League last season before backing it up with a solid fourth in a valuable contest at Haydock. Following a mixed bag of runs this year—ranging from a mile up to two miles—he finally gets his absolute ideal conditions today.
The All-Weather Specialist
Teumessias Fox: For those looking at a bigger price, he is an incredibly dangerous horse to dismiss. Now running off a mark 12lb lower than his peak rating of 105, he is a significantly better animal on synthetic surfaces than he is on turf. While he has run well at Newcastle on multiple occasions, the minor question mark is the distance—he would likely be seen to even better effect if dropping back to a slightly shorter trip.
The Market Question Mark
Oursin: Sitting toward the head of the market at the time of writing, he is the biggest enigma in the race. He hasn’t been seen since May following a gelding operation, and he is yet to try a distance this far. While he remains entirely open to improvement with just four lifetime starts to his name, he realistically needs to find another 8lb to 10lb of progression to win this. At the current prices, there are simply too many question marks hanging over him.
The Three-Year-Old Weight Receivers
Folk Pageant: Receiving a healthy weight allowance, she represents the most likely pace angle in the race. However, she still needs to prove she can truly see out this trip on a galloping track that asks serious questions of a horse’s stamina.
Wardlaw: Another catching the eye with the weight allowance, he is very much a work in progress. He clearly possesses plenty of natural ability and wouldn’t need to step up visual mountains to get involved in the finish, but he might just find a couple of these older, battle-hardened rivals a bit too tough at this stage of his career.
The Outsiders
Dark Moon Rising, Tiernan, & High Point: While anything can happen on the Tapeta, this trio looks up against it on historical form. I fully expect that several of the market principles would need to run significantly below their best for any of these outsiders to be good enough to win.
Race Analysis: Folk Pageant is likely to lead them along in the early part of the race with Oursin and Circus Of Rome in close proximity. Both Teumessias Fox and Wardlaw can be slowly away and the early pace will dictate where they race. In this smaller field I wouldn’t be surprised to see Teumessias Fox race rather keenly and find himself handier than ideal. Turning in I expect Teumessias Fox to be pressing Folk Pageant before the stronger stayers start to move through with both Circus Of Rome and Ernst Blofeld the most likely to benefit.
Market Analysis: Circus Of Rome looks the most likeliest winner on form, but is short enough at the 3/1 which is generally available. Despite a small drift since the market opened, Ernst Blofeld looks the best bet at 11/2 Each-Way with jockey Harry Vigors claiming a valuable 5lb. Posting three useful efforts off his current mark of 96, including a seventh at Royal Ascot behind the future Ebor winner, his other two runs resulted in placed efforts at a higher level than this. Winning two of his three all-weather races to date, this return to a slower artificial surface may see him to better effect.
Selection: Ernst Blofeld @ 11/2 (Generally Available) 2pts Each-Way (1/5 1-2-3)
