The opening race of the day is the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes, registered as the John Porter Stakes. Although I do like Arrest, it may be worth considering a small stakes punt on Al Qareem here hoping he can continue to improving as a five-year-old. Despite losing out to Hamish (who reopposes) at Newmarket last November on heavy ground, I think he is overpriced at 6/1 with plenty in his favour and against the others. Winner of two of his three domestic races last year, he toughs his races out and although the Group 3 he won was not the deepest in terms of form, he did also win at Group 2 level as a three-year-old suggesting there is plenty of ability in his locker. Arrest is clearly the one they all need to beat and there are excuses for his defeats to date as he disappointed in the Derby (where he became very unbalanced) and then again at Royal Ascot (good-firm ground). The concern would be that drying conditions may not be absolutely ideal for him today, even though the track should play to his strengths and it will be intereting to see how much he finds under pressure for Kieran Shoemark, who teams up with the Gosdens this season. As for Hamish, the William Haggis trained runner is a tricky customer and needs to be delivered late, which isn’t easy here at Newbury. To date, all three of his runs at the Berkshire track have ended in defeat (3-2-2), abeit narrow ones, and drying conditions would also not be in his favour.

Recommended Bet:
Al Qareem @ 6/1 – Generally 1PT WIN

The Nell Gwyn Stakes has plenty of history of providing Classic and Group 1 winners, although not so much in recent years with the exception of Alcohol Free. This year looks to have several nice prospects lining up, with Group 2 Lowther Stakes winner Relief Rally heading the market. She clearly holds the best form to date but has to prove she will stay this far, and the speed she showed over five furlongs to win at Royal Ascot and the Super Sprint, I am not sure she will in what could be a tactical race. Preference here is for Regal Jubilee, who travelled extremely well at Newmarket in the Montrose Stakes. The way she travelled there gives confidence here that the drop in trip from a mile to seven furlongs should not be a problem, and although that win came on heavy ground, I don’t think it helped her and she won that through ability alone. A winner at Windsor on good ground, she has proven she doesn’t need it extremely soft and as a half-sister to Regal Reality, she could well be very smart. Despite drifting in the market she is the one I would side with and is worth backing at around 7/2 (4.5 available on the exchange).

Recommended Bet:
Regal Jubilee @ 4.5 – Betfair Exchange 2PTS WIN

Trainer Ralph Beckett has won two of the last ten renewals of the Dubai Duty Free (Fred Darling) Stakes, but he has a really likeable sort in the Greenham today in Zoum Zoum, who could take plenty of beating. He has been well found in the market but can still be backed at 3/1 with William Hill and is 4.5 (7/2) on the Betfair Exchange. His last two wins have come on heavy ground, so he does need to prove he can act on a quicker surface, but he was just as effective on the all-weather at Kempton, and despite drying weather, there still seems to be some juice in the ground at Newbury. Bred to be speedy, his dam was a Listed winner over six furlongs, with his sire effective up to a mile. This doesn’t look the strongest of renewals with winners such as Frankel, Kingman, Muhaarar, and Barney Roy all going on to score multiple times at Group 1 level, and Zoum Zoum looks the most likely of these to be able to progress to such a level, if any of them can. His biggest danger may well be Army Ethos, who was runner-up in last years Coventry Stakes behind River Tiber. The Archie Watson runner was a shade disappointing last time out at Newcastle but he had been off the course since Royal Ascot and may have just needed the race after attempting to make all on that stiff track. Held up off the pace this time, I’d expect him to finish in the placings at 9/1 if retaining all of his early ability.

Recommended Bet:
Zoum Zoum @ 7/2 – (Betfair Exchange) 2PTS WIN

The big betting race of the day is the Newbury Spring Cup and there are two that have been on my radar since the Doncaster Lincoln Meeting. The first to mention is Navagio, who did well in the circumstances to finish third in the Lincoln itself. There wouldn’t be too much between the selection and Lattam on that Doncaster run, but my feeling is that Navagio lost out on one of the gaps that the pair went for and that halted his momentum. Before that, he looked like he had a better change of gear than the Julie Camacho runner, and I expect him to use those gears to better effect on this drying ground on 3lb better terms. Although he is a nice each-way price at around 8/1, he would only be a win option as there are quite a few others that are still open to further improvement. The second that I like at a much bigger price is Look Back Smiling, who has missed a couple of engagements due to poor weather and abandonments. I do think he would have had a much better chance in several of those events, but he is definitely unexposed from a mark of just 87. It is a shame that Brandon Wilkie doesn’t retain the ride as he is a very tricky customer and will fully test apprentice Laura Coughlan. That is perhaps the only negative as she has ridden him six time with just one of those ending with vicotry. However, at 20/1 and bigger, he is worth an each way punt with some firms paying out on 6th and 7th place.

Recommended Bet:
Navagio @ 8/1 – Boylesports 2PTS WIN
Look Back Smiling @ 20/1 – SkyBet 2PTS EACH-WAY (1/5th 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)

There is also plenty of good action over at Ayr where the Scottish Grand National takes place. I don’t really have an opinion on the big race itself but think the consistent My Silver Lining could run a huge race at around 16/1. The only horse I do have strong opinions for would be Quia De Bourbon in the Novice Hurdle following his third in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, as that looks a preety deep race. At 4/5 he wouldn’t be a bet though.

Good Luck Punting!!