Grand National – The Combination Tri-casts!!



Today see’s the World’s most famous race take place over the very unique birch fences! With famous names such as Bechers Brook, The Chair, Foinavon, and the Canal Turn, the Aintree Grand National, although modified in recent years to continually improve horse welfare, is that one day of the year where we all have a speculative bet to try and find the winner over this four mile two furlong course.

From a punting point of view, this is a race where you will need a little bit of luck and for that reason it isn’t a race to play to heavily in. Although plenty will attempt to back a few each-way, due to the field likely going off at 7-1 or bigger most years, it is a race I like to find 7 or so with solid chances and play combination tricasts, hoping that any of them fill the 1-2-3 at the line. A feat pulled off in 2017 when One For Arthur (14/1), Cause Of Causes (16/1), and Saint Are (25/1) returned at a whopping 5,602-1!

Below I have run through my thoughts on this years contenders and the ones I will be siding with in this years renewal.

Noble Yeats (25/1)
Winner of this in 2022 as a seven-year-old, he followed that up with a good fourth behind Corach Rambler last year from a mark of 166 and returns once more on a mark just 1lb lower. It is a huge task to win this carrying 11st 12lb, but he is a class act and is still only nine. With plenty of others looking to have elevated official ratings I expect him to run well again, albeit without winning. Definitely one that can make the frame and have on side for this purpose.

Minella Indo (16/1)
The 2021 Gold Cup winner has been plying his trade over the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham this season and has stamina in abundance. It will not be ideal that he missed an intended prep at The Cheltenham Festival due to the race being abandoned but he represents a trainer and jockey that won this race the year of his Gold Cup Triumph. At eleven years of age he is not the force of old but rejuvenated for the change to cross country racing, he definitely has a chance to make the frame with a good round of jumping.

Corach Rambler (8/1)
Last years winner won with plenty in hand and is a real character of a horse. His third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup again shows that he is still relatively well treated from a mark of 159 as he is now officially rated 162. That run would have put him spot on for this, especially with Aintree coming a little bit later in the year than can be the case, and the drying ground will only improve his chances. His run style is well suited to how this race often pan’s out and he will be appearing as late on as possible. There is no real reason to think why he cannot repeat last years success and follow in the footsteps on Red Rum and Tiger Roll as a multiple winner.

Delta Work 20/1
Third in 2022 behind Noble Yeats, similar to Minella Indo, he has plied his trade over the Cross Country Courses and relishes a test of stamina. Arguably his best piece of form for this came when winning the Cross Country race at last year’s Cheltenham Festival whilst beating dual National hero Tiger Roll. He was still travelling okay in this race last year before nearly falling, eventually unseating his rider Keith Donoghue, and although he is a more than capable pilot, Jack Kennedy riding this year is a positive upgrade. A solid horse who jumps well. With a clean round not many will beat him home.

Mr Incredible 14/1
A bit of an enigma kind of horse, he looks to stay all day long with solid runs in the Midland’s Grand National at Uttoxeter and last years Classic Chase at Warwick, finishing second both times. He is notoriously hard to win with but has solid place claims, especially after running promisingly in last years race until his saddle slipped and he unseated his rider at the Canal Turn. It is hard to tell how he would have fared with so much running left to do but with his stamina assured he would have been there abouts for the places and is just 5lb higher in the weights this time around. With the starting protocols changed for this year, a standing start may be a small concern but if he does jump away with them on terms he should run a sound race and could be a huge threat to the rest.

Limerick Lace 10/1
She is the wild card for this considering she is untested at the trip and has mainly been kept to small fields. This test is a complete unknown in the scheme of things. That said, it has been well highlighted that she is a sister to Inothewayurthinkin, who won well here to take a Grade 1 Novice Chase on Thursday, following up his Kim Muir win at the Cheltenham Festival, and although she is not able to take any credit for her siblings performances, she is very much on an upward curve and could improve any amount for the step up in trip. Again, it has been well documented that Mares do not have a great record in the race, but Magic Of Light was second to Tiger Roll five years ago, and in all fairness, not many Mares have tried. To further her claims, jockey Mark Walsh also has a very good record in the race finishing in the first five in three of the last four renewals thanks to Anibale Fly and Any Second Now. He clearly knows how to get a horse around safely.

Kitty’s Light 14/1
A winner of the Scottish Grand National and Sandown’s Gold Cup just 7 days apart, he is a real terrier of a horse who loves a marathon trip. Although in the book he has not been in the same form this year, his trainer is excellent in targeting these marathon trips and he would have just been kept ticking a long with a view to either getting a run here or reappearing at Ayr for a second Scottish National. The drying ground is again in his favour and I can see him running well if taking to the fences, as he is on the smaller side (a la Tiger Roll). It would be a fantastic story if he could pull it off for trainer Christian Williams, who’s six-year-old daughter Betsy was diagnosed with Leukaemia last year. A win here would definitely boost morale for everyone connected during her ongoing treatment and recovery.

Vanillier 14/1 (Optional)
For those wanting to risk an eighth selection, then Vanillier has to be one of the remaining runners that figures highest on the shortlist, considering his second in the race last year. He hasn’t looked in the same form this season but similar to Kitty’s Light, his season would have been completely geared up towards this and he has just 4lb more to defy. At no point do I think he would have beaten Corach Rambler last year, who if anything idled on the run to the elbow and the line, but he clearly stays well and made up plenty of ground to pass seven or eight with two to jump. He could easily do something similar this time around off what is still a good racing weight.


Other Contenders
Plenty of others could have made the cut, but it is down to small reasons that they just could not be included. In regards to I Am Maximus, he has plenty of talent but I just don’t like how he gets from A to B over his fences and that has to be a slight worry here, even with the modifications. He could potentially hack up considering he is 5lb well in but at around 15/2 he’s short enough. Mahler Mission is another who I have reluctantly left out. Runner-Up in the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy (Former Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup) I just felt he lacked a little bit of scope for this. The form of that race hasn’t worked out all that well and although he looks as if he will stay the trip, I am not sure he will stay it as well as some of the others who are already proven at this level or higher. The drying ground definitely plays to Galvin‘s strengths but again, I feel he just lacks the scope to land a race like this, albeit he is 11lb lower than when 22/1 for this last year. The same owner has Stattler entered and I would have really liked his chances looking at his form when winning the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in 2022, as he followed that up with a decent enough second to dual Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champ. He was pulled up next time out and perhaps hasn’t looked as good since, especially last time out when jumping so poorly. It would be great to see Late Night Pass win for connections. However, his level of form is just not quite there for me, albeit he does have plenty of course form and partially proved his stamina when running well in two Cross Country handicaps at Cheltenham. He’s 12lb higher than the first of those runs and 9lb higher than when fourth in last years Foxhunters here, so has something extra to find. Another one with excellent course form is Mac Tottie, although the concern for me with him is this distance. He will likely give his jockey James Bowen a great spin for a fair way round but I can’t see him seeing out the trip. Last but not least worth a mention is Meetingofthewaters, who won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting and has been targeted at this since. I was slightly disappointed with his run at the Cheltenham Festival though which may prove that he is not that well handicapped (17lb higher than Leopardstown) and he may just get outclassed.


Prediction
1st – Corach Rambler
2nd – Mr Incredible
3rd – Limerick Lace
4th – Delta Work
5th – Noble Yeats
6th – Kitty’s Light
7th – Minella Indo
8th – Vanillier

Recommended Bet:
336 x Combination Tricasts

Enjoy the race, and Good Luck Punting!!

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