AWC Finals Day At Newcastle!!

The winter all-weather season culminates at Gosforth Park and Lingfield Park today, with the All-Weather Championships being staged at Newcastle and consolation races at Lingfield for those not rated high enough to make the cut.

Focus today will be at Newcastle and the first race on the card is the Burrandon Stakes, a Listed race for three-year-olds, where Silent Age is favourite. Although the Godolphin horse is two from two, he has not really had to do anything special and this will be much tougher. A well bed son of Dubawi, out of a full-sister to Group 1 winner Measured Time and half-sister to another Group 1 winner Rebel’s Romance, he is bred to be good. That said, he was gelded before making his debut suggesting that he wasn’t the easiest to train and to my untrained eye, he looks a little on the small side and could lack scope to improve. At a general 5/2 I am willing to take him on and the one I would side with is Cuban Tiger at 9/1 (11.0 on the Exchange). A winner over six furlongs first time out, he looked to get caught out for acceleration last time at Kempton but stuck on gamely to only go down by a length to another Godolphin horse, Notable Speech, who holds a 2000 Guineas entry. My opinion is that this straight stiff mile will be much more to his liking and given a truly run race I can’t see him finishing out of the 1-2-3, especially with concerns over both Orne and Room Service staying this trip, with the latter lacking a recent run under his belt.

Recommended Bet:
Cuban Tiger @ 9/1 – Generally 2PTS EACH-WAY (1/5th 1-2-3)

The Marathon Handicap kicks off the six “finals races”, with the big change being the fact that these contests used to be run as conditions events. Current favourite Spartan Army looks very progressive and he is the one to beat with his performance at Lingfield last time out looking very good. An official handicap mark of 95 still looks to under-rate his ability and although he looks to be well found in the market (7/2 is still available) he can still be backed at 6.2 on the exchange. His biggest danger might be Duke Of Oxford, who has only had three attempts at the trip, winning his first two and then finishing third in a strong event over course and distance where they went no pace early on. Although the eventual winner hasn’t really franked the form, the second (Enemy) won a Conditions race next time and just missed out on a valuable Group 3 in Saudi Arabia the time after. At around 12/1 he wouldn’t be a terrible each-way bet here.

Recommended Bet:
Spartan Army @ 6.2 – Betfair Exchange 2PTS WIN

The Three-Year-Old Sprint looks a race of two halves, as I cannot see Media Shooter reversing Kempton form with Fire Demon, but I can see Sommelier reversing form with Blue Prince from when they met here in January. My preference would be with Sommelier just on the basis that he did lots wrong on Trials Day and looked a tad unlucky in defeat, just being caught late on. The Marco Botti runner only has four runs under his belt and looks a progressive sprinter in the making. The son of Due Diligence took too keen a hold last time and just failed to get home on this stiff track but still showed enough ability to pull clear of his rivals before tiring. I expect Rossa Ryan to get him to settle a little bit better this time ad if he does they won’t see which way he goes. Generally a 7/2 chance, he can be backed at around 4.8 on the exchange.

Recommended Bet:
Sommelier @ 4.8 – Betfair Exchange 3PTS WIN

Nine Tenths looks a worthy favourite for the Fillies’ and Mares’ race as she is in effect 15lb better off with Shades Of Summer who got first run on her last time out, and she also has the beating of Cloud Cover on their Wolverhampton form. It is interesting that William Haggas opts to take the 7lb off with the use of Apprentice Jack Enright, but Nine Tenths looks pretty straight forward and should get the job done. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 6/4 though as it might well be a messy race, so it is a no bet race. I will however be keeping a close eye on both Aramis Grey and Hodd’s Girl at bigger prices as the pair were second and third in this last year.

Recommended Bet:
No Bet

It could be argued that Albasheer should be three from three at this track and I am sure that given the chance, Luke Morris would like another go when the pair only managed to finish third over course and distance in a Listed race last November. Morris surely won’t make the same mistake twice and will let the handbrake off earlier this time. From an official handicap mark of 110 he is rated best in the race and with all conditions in his favour, including the draw, it is hard to understand why he is not currently favourite for this. At 6/1 (13/2 in places) he looks a solid each-way bet with outstanding chances of winning, with William Hill covering the first five from an each-way perspective. Fivethousandtoone, who is 6lb better off from their meeting here on New Years Day can chase him home again.

Recommended Bet:
Albasheer @ 6/1 – William Hill 5PTS EACH-WAY (1/5th 1-2-3-4-5)

I have always been a big fan of Penzance who has looked very progressive on the all-weather. This is definitely his toughest task to date though, taking on an opponent such as Elegant Man, whose only defeat in three runs has come when tackling multiple Group 1 winner Rebel’s Romance. For me, the race looks between the pair of them and Bet365 are offering 5/4 that for either to win, which is perhaps a little short with 4/1 and 9/2 available with some bookmakers. Of the pair, I would be inclined to side with Elegant Man who is 9/2 with Unitbet, as he might just have a class edge and be open to even more improvement. The Kempton race where he finished runner-up was red-hot on the clock.

Recommended Bet:
Elegant Man @ 9/2 – Unibet 2PTS WIN

The final race of the day is the Mile Handicap where Dear My Friend looks to rattle off a fourth consecutive win after taking two of the trial races. Not many horses would have defied a handicap mark of 113, and my personal opinion would be that he has it all to do from that mark with both Symbol Of Light and Fantastic Fox both better off with him at the weights. The nod just goes to Symbol Of Light who had to wait before delivering his run last time and is 15lb better off with Dear My Friend when he finished two lengths behind. It is a very competitive race, so he wouldn’t be the most confident bet of the day with quite a few others still progressing, but at 5/1 (11/2 in places) he looks one of the more likely ones to make the frame.

Recommended Bet:
Symbol Of Light @ 11/2 – Unibet 1PT EACH-WAY (1/5th 1-2-3-4)

Good Luck Punting!!

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