At this point in time, I don’t have a particularly strong opinion on the Lincoln Handicap looking at the current prices. Having backed La Botte in the Lincoln Trial Handicap at Wolverhampton three weeks ago, I hastily backed him for this after seeing him anchored eight-lengths off the leader before they had even gone 100yards. What made Wolverhampton even more difficult to watch was seeing him being pulled exceptionally wide off the home bend to make his challenge, losing more ground before staying on to go down by just two lengths at the line. Some bookmakers pushed him out to 14/1 for this following that “prep”, but all I saw was the promise that there was more to come, especially on a straight track. La Botte is now as short as 4/1, and I wouldn’t be advising anyone to take that, albeit I still think he is the best horse in the race and hopefully (more than confidently) the most likely winner. He does face a very interesting opponent in the William Haggas trained Eternal Force though, who is 3-3 after being gelded and is in receipt of 8lb. Haggas is known to target the Lincoln, having won the race five times in the past and he has obviously had this earmarked for Eternal Force for sometime. The first of his wins came from a mark of 83, and he is now rated 96 (13lb higher), but there could still be any amount of improvement to come from three to four.
In terms of the draw, there seems to be very little pace, but both Urban Lion (2) and Botanical (3) like to be prominent, so they could bunch up over on the far rail and make it a bit more of a tactical race. Depending on how Jamie Spencer is looking to ride La Botte, that would likely play into Eternal Force’s favour. However, La Botte does have the benefit of a run under his belt.
The head of the market is dominated by unexposed four-year-olds, but the last four renewals have been won by horses that are five or older, three of which at prices north of 16/1. With several bookmakers offering each-way terms down to sixth, there has to be some each-way value in the race with the two mentioned above dominating the head of the market. Of the older brigade, one I can make a small case for is Galeron, who is still available at 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes. Although hard to win with, he finished 5th in this last year off a mark of 102 and is now down 7lb to a mark of 95. On top of that, his very capable apprentice Jack Callan takes an additional 5lb off his back, so he is effectively running off a mark of 90 and carrying 8st 12lb (14lb less than last year). Galeron had two more runs over this course and distance last year, finishing third to Triple Tee (who runs in the Doncaster Mile), before perhaps being a shade unlucky behind Desperate Dan on his last run of the season, seemingly losing his position a little bit before running on strongly at the line. The winner had already gone that day though and Galeron had no chance catching him. Although he would have to run a huge PB to win this, I do think there is value in his price from an each-way perspective.
Recommended Bet:
Galeron @ 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – 0.5pts Each-Way (1/5) 1-2-3-4-5
Good Luck Punting!!
CLT Racing 
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