The Flat is BACK for 2026 with the Brocklesby!!

There won’t be many more difficult puzzles to solve this season than the opening race at Doncaster on Lincoln Handicap day. The Class 2 Brocklesby Stakes will see a maximum of 15 juveniles make their racecourse debuts, and unless you are well connected, it will be very difficult to know what has been showing up well at home. Before we get into it though, it is a lovely gesture for Doncaster to name the race in honour of Bill Turner who sadly passed away last year. Bill won this race no fewer than six times. The first victory coming in 1996 thanks to Indian Spark, with his sixth win coming via Mick’s Yer Man, who was ridden by his grandson Ryan While. The race will have a different feel without having Bill’s name being next to a runner, but it is great to see daughter Kathy carry on the yards tradition with the aptly named Nevernotrememberu lining up, and I wish her all the best on what will likely be an emotional day for the yard.

So, where do you start with a race like the Brocklesby?! When it comes to unraced juveniles, there are a few factors that can be taken into account weighing up a race of this nature. For me, especially this early on, the most important factor is digging down into the age of each runner. Traditionally, horses all turn a year older on the 1st of January, rather than on their foaling date which can be as late as June, allowing them to compete against others foaled in the same calendar year. Realistically, at this stage in a horses career that can count for plenty. For example, when looking at this years renewal, be sure to consider the fact that The Kalonji Man (foaled on 29/01/2024) will be 705 days old come this Saturday (28th March), whilst Bill The Bull (foaled 05/04/2024) will only be 638 days old. That means at this point in their racing lives, The Kalonji Man has had an additional 67 days (10%) to develop physically. Granted, we won’t know how much these youngsters would have been asked to do at home, but it is much more likely that The Kalongi Man would have had the opportunity to do a little more during that timeline.

And that brings us on to our next factor, which is the trainer. Racehorse trainers are creatures of habit, and it is easy to look back to see who excels with having precocious types that are forward enough to kick the season off, compared to those who allow slower development through the season. Of those with runners entered, Richard Hannon stands out, providing last years’ winner, as well as the winner in 2022, both for Amo Racing. What is even more significant is that he has won the last two renewals that he has had representation, with no runner in either the 2023 or 2024 editions of the race. He will be doubly represented this time around by the earlier mentioned The Kalongi Man, but also by A Bear Affair, who looks to be the pick of stable jockey Sean Levey, but both have to be of interest here. As mentioned above, Amo Racing have targeted this race for the the last four years so their new trainer Robson De Aguiar needs a strong mention also. New to the training ranks in November last year following a successful period of breaking in and pre-training horses, he has hit the ground running with 11 winners from 55 runners in Ireland. With the Irish season kicking off two weeks ago we also have an idea where we stand with his early juveniles, with his first two juvenile runners finishing 2nd and 3rd in the opening Maiden at the Curragh. With three Amo horses given the option of coming here at early declarations (Salt Lake not declared), they will be double-handed here with Blixen Force, the pick of Rowan Scott, and Ocean Club. Of the other trainers with runners, both Ralph Beckett and Dylan Cunha would be ones to keep on side. The first mentioned wouldn’t be well known for running many early types so the fact he has one entered here (Dance A Jig) at this level is eye catching. Historically, the majority of his Juvenile runners wouldn’t normally be seen until May time onwards, where he does have a decent record. As for Cunha, he trained the 2024 winner Zminiature, so will know what it takes to have one ready. I have seen a recent video of his runner Step To Glory working at Newmarket, and although it is very difficult to know how good the piece of work was, he looked prepped and straightforward enough. Similar to De Aguiar, new trainer on the block (and Derby winning rider) Adam Kirby also deserves a mention setting out on his first full season with a trainers license. Again, he has a recent background of breaking in and pre-training horses, so it would be no surprise to see Bill The Bull out run his odds first time out, despite being the youngest to line up.

The third thing I generally take into account in a race of this nature would be breeding. Although nothing is guaranteed, it can be possible to gauge some information from this. Looking at the ability shown by siblings (especially early on) and the conditions the sire and dams progeny have excelled in, it can provide a glimpse of what could be achievable at an early stage. Both Blixen Force and Ocean Club are by first season sire Persian Force, already mentioned as a former winner of this race in 2022. It would be no surprise to see them follow in their sire’s footprints. In fact, Blixen Force has even more going for him here on the pedigree front, being out of Baroness Blixen, who is a full sister to Show Me Show Me, who also won this race in 2019, so there is definitely history on his side! There is also plenty to like about Dance A Jig’s breeding too. A son of Group 1 winner Naval Crown, he is out of a mare (Strictly Dancing) who has produced two black type performers in Dancing Star and Foxtrot Lady. That said, of his nine siblings that have run to date, none have won on debut or over the minimum trip of five furlongs, so that would be a negative. The Kalongi Man also has quite a likable pedigree being out of a dam who has produced five individual winners (two over the minimum trip) from her six offspring that have raced. None of them won on debut as a two-year-old, however, his dam Fantacise is related to four juveniles, including Queen Mary winners Romantic Liason and Romantic Myth, who won on their debuts which does gives some hope of precocity.

Taking the above into account, it is not a surprise to see Blixen Force at the head of the market, and he looks the most likely winner coming from an operation that have targeted this race previously, has a trainer with a history of prepping horses and has already had runners that have performed well, and on breeding, plenty of history associated with this race. Currently though, he is 15/8 favourite so nothing is being given away by the bookies. The two that I would prefer to back each-way are Step To Glory, who represents the yard that won this in 2024, and The Kalongi Man, who is theoretically the oldest in the line up and comes from a yard that has an excellent record. At a best priced 16/1 and 25/1 at the time of writing I think they offer the best value in the market. My personal preference is for Step To Glory, who I have seen, albeit via video, and with Bet365 currently offering enhanced each-way places, the 14/1 available looks the best option considering the favourites profile.


Recommended Bet:
Step To Glory @ 14/1 (Bet365) – 1pt Each-Way (1/5) 1-2-3-4

Good Luck Punting!!